On Timing, And Why It Is Time To Move On

Cincinnati basketball has elevated from C-USA to the Big 12 over the last 20 years. Poor timing on firings and hirings has been the theme, but the program has continued to grow in spite of that. A renovated 5/3 Arena, improved budget and the Big 12 Conference are here.

Now it is the time to take Bearcats Basketball to the next level.

A lot has happened in Clifton in the last 20 years. Leaving C-USA to join the Big East in 2006. Taking a huge step back down to the AAC in 2014. Jumping back up to the top level of college basketball by entering the Big 12 Conference in 2024.

Conference realignment has been a rollercoaster for Cincinnati fans.

One thing that has been much more consistent during that timespan is UC’s inability to fire or hire at the best possible moment. This spans multiple presidents, conferences and athletic directors in this century.

It all started when President Nancy Zimpher fired Bob Huggins in August of 2005, just two months before the start of the season. Weeks later Andy Kennedy was promoted to interim HC by AD Mike Thomas.

Talk about bad timing.

Cincinnati’s 14 season March Madness streak would be coming to an end a few months later as Kennedy’s UC team missed the NCAA Tournament in heartbreaking fashion. The Bearcats were eliminated from the NIT on March 23rd and announced their next HC Mick Cronin on March 24th. Mick had a hell of a mess to clean up, and it was good business by Mike Thomas to get right into it immediately after the season ended. The Cronin hire ended up being the most normal hire UC has made this century due to the natural timeline of moving on from an interim and hiring an affordable alum who had been coaching nearby at mid major Murray State.

Cronin had a 13 year run in Clifton where he made nine straight NCAA Tournament appearances, and that consistency lead to the renovation of 5/3 Arena in 2018. Cronin wasn’t fired, but his departure to UCLA was awful timing for the UC program. The Bruins took 100 days to find their replacement for Steve Alford and after being turned down by multiple candidates they finally set their sights on Mick Cronin on April 9th, 2019.

UC AD Mike Bohn would hire NKU HC John Brannen five days later after UC had been linked with an assortment of coaches: Loyola’s Porter Moser, Murray State’s Matt McMahon, assistant Dane Fife, recently fired Bryce Drew (0-18 SEC for Vandy!), NBA assistant and UC legend Nick Van Exel, UC assistant Darren Savino, South Carolina’s Frank Martin, and Duquesne’s Keith Dambrot.

Not exactly an exciting list of names for the top basketball program in the AAC. It could have been stronger had the job opened in late March after UC lost to Iowa. For example, Buffalo’s Nate Oats moved to Alabama on March 27th, just five days after Cincy’s season ended and two weeks before UCLA hired Cronin. There were also rumors that John Brannen was not UC’s top choice, but Bohn felt rushed to get the hire done and went with the local guy.

The Brannen era ended just as fast as it started, as he got fired for cause on April 9th, 2021. Late again, nearly a full month after UC’s season ended.

You never want to be hiring in mid-April.

UC AD John Cunningham surprisingly hired UNC-Greensboro HC Wes Miller five days later after there had been a ton of smoke with WVU assistant and former UC basketball player/alum Erik Martin. The job was also linked with OSU assistant Ryan Pedon and NBA assistant Ronald Nored. This pool was smaller than the previous one, but equally weak.

The timing still felt bad.

Could UC have landed a guy like Duke assistant John Scheyer if they were able to get out of Brannen sooner? We will never know, but head coaching searches can be limited if you get a late start, and that is all we have ever experienced as Cincinnati fans.

It’s time to be aggressive, move with conviction, and attack this hiring window in March.

The last time the Cincinnati Bearcats job was open, the transfer portal was just becoming a thing, but now it is the norm. You can turn around a team in just a season and there is less focus on program building like Mick Cronin had to do in the early Big East days.

Firing early and having ample time to make a hire in late March/early April puts your program in a good spot to compete for the upcoming season.

In spring of 2024 Indiana University decided to run it back for year four under Mike Woodson after finishing 91st in KenPom and having a 10-10 Big Ten record. FAU HC Dusty May, an IU alum, was available to hire after back to back NCAA Tournament appearances plus a Final Four.

Fast forward two years — Indiana finished 9-11 in the Big Ten and Dusty May is coaching the 29-2 Big Ten Champs up in Ann Arbor. Sometimes when you have the right hiring window with the right candidates available to you it is necessary to be aggressive and take control of your move. How do you think IU fans feel right now watching Kelvin Sampson and Dusty May be top 5 coaches in the sport?

Last year the Minnesota Golden Gophers fired HC Ben Johnson on March 13th after a 7-13 Big Ten record in his fourth season in Minneapolis. Minnesota is generally regarded as a conservative program with low ambition, but they moved quickly and named alum Niko Medved as HC on March 24th. Medved was a hot name in a chaotic coaching cycle after making three tournaments in his last four seasons at Colorado State. The Golden Gophers feared that if they didn’t make the move then that they may never get their most talented coaching alum. Medved, an offensive minded coach, went 8-12 in his first season at Minnesota but had the Golden Gophers as the #1 AST/FGM team in the country. 71.4% is a top 10 mark in KenPom history which spans back to the 1997 season. The future looks bright at Minnesota.

Last year’s coaching window was pure chaos as there was a ton of movement at the power level. Florida State hired Luke Loucks out of the NBA. IU hired Darian DeVries from WVU. WVU hired Ross Hodge from UNT. Maryland hired Buzz Williams from A&M after Kevin Willard went to Villanova. A&M hired Bucky McMillan. Miami hired Duke assistant Jai Lucas. NC State hired Will Wade. Virginia hired Ryan Odom. Texas hired Sean Miller and Xavier replaced him with Richard Pitino from New Mexico. Minnesota hired Niko Medved from Colorado State.

With this much movement in 2025 it was safe to assume that 2026 would have fewer power openings and far less movement. As of March 9th it sure seems to be heading that direction as only Kansas State, Arizona State, Georgia Tech, Boston College and Providence are “officially” open and a few programs like Pittsburgh, Oklahoma and Syracuse are rumored to be opening. In the current landscape Cincinnati should be able to beat out any of these programs for a top candidate.

This is setting up for another wild window next year, why not join the party now and get your top candidate? Perhaps even an alum.

Saint Louis’ Josh Schertz and Utah State’s Jerrod Calhoun are the big names in the current coaching window — both could be obtainable for the Cincinnati Bearcats. Schertz is the hot former D2 to high major name right now and Calhoun is an offensive minded member of the Bob Huggins coaching tree who graduated from the University of Cincinnati in 2004. Both are attractive candidates that better jobs than Cincinnati would covet if their jobs were open.

But those jobs are not currently open.

This is a huge opportunity for AD John Cunningham and top UC donors to be aggressive and control the transition to the next era of Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball. The alternative is to sit around and wait.

Next year there might be 15 openings. Next year Tom Izzo, Bill Self, or Mark Few might retire. They might all retire. Next year UNC, Louisville, Ohio State, or Kentucky might open. They might all open. You might only have one shot to get a Jerrod Calhoun, and it would be a shame to miss out on that when an accomplished alum is sitting right there.

If for some reason you miss on Schertz and Calhoun it could be bad, but there are still plenty of options out there like UConn assistant Luke Murray, USF HC Bryan Hodgson and New Mexico HC Eric Olen. Power coaches looking for parachutes could also be options like DePaul’s Chris Holtmann, Northwestern’s Chris Collins and Mississippi State’s Chris Jans.

An unnecessarily expanded NCAA Tournament is on the horizon and it will encourage programs and administrators to be even more conservative than they were previously as it is very easy to sell “we made the tournament!” to fans when trying to sell season tickets. This is my biggest fear with retaining Wes Miller. There is a very real scenario he ends up being here for a decade while barely making the expanded tournament or inconsistently making it for years.

Pittsburgh is a cautionary tale. Since Jamie Dixon left in 2016, the program has drifted through years of mediocrity under Kevin Stallings and Jeff Capel with only one NCAA Tournament appearance in 10 years. If you retain Miller after this season, his fifth straight missing the tournament, Cincinnati would be opening themselves up to their version of whatever this is ⬇

Pittsburgh is our former Big East brother and has proven since Jamie Dixon left that they are not an ambitious basketball program while being in the ACC the entire time. Cincinnati had an excuse, as they were in the AAC and had weird things happen with Mick leaving late in the cycle plus John Brannen getting fired in April.

Cincinnati will enter Pittsburgh territory if they decide to act in a similar manner while now being a member of the Big 12 Conference. This is the first time in UC history where the men’s basketball program could have a job opening while being a member of a power conference. Take advantage of it. Show the fans you care with actions, not words. There is an entire generation of UC students who have not felt athletic success during their four years in Clifton, you cannot let it happen to two generations in a row. These students are the future of the fanbase.

You cannot take the fan support for granted, there will be a sharp decline in attendance and a big increase in hostility if Wes Miller returns. Especially if the home Crosstown Shootout game is a loss, or if UC loses to Kansas State with Jerrod Calhoun as their HC, or if Arizona State smacks the Bearcats with Randy Bennett or Greg McDermott as their HC.

It will get worse than it was this year if horrible things like that happen. It will get worse than it was this year if the Bearcats continue to do what they have been doing, which is finish anywhere from 9th to 12th in the Big 12. The mediocrity will spill over and fans will turn their back on the program in droves.

Wes Miller’s contract was obtained via the FOIA. I am not a lawyer and am not necessarily good at math either, but that is not gonna stop me from attempting to present these details in a clear manner so you can make your own conclusions.

Above you will see that Miller’s buyout drastically falls from $9.9M to $4.69M when the clock strikes midnight on 4/1. But a lot more matters than that. For instance, IU had to pay Mike Woodson a lump sum of $6.5M as a part of his buyout. Louisville had to pay Kenny Payne $7.25M over 3 years which amounts to over $200,000 a month. Neither are head coaches now too, so those numbers are large, accurate and nobody else is helping foot the bill.

AD John Cunningham structured the contract in a way that makes the buyout terms much more feasible for a program like UC which is still in a transition phase to the power level. This is a strong historical basketball program but financially still leveling up. However many years are remaining on the deal the buyout will be paid out monthly over two times the length of the deal ⬇

You will also notice above in the last three lines: “If Coach is employed by or performing services for another employer prior to the end of the payment period, the University’s obligation to make payments to Coach shall be reduced by the amount of gross income earned by Coach from other such position(s).” This is an important part of most contracts that fans either do not know or do not care about, but it matters to whoever is funding the firing.

For example, when Ohio State moved on from Chris Holtmann the Buckeyes were obligated to pay nearly $15M in buyout money to Holtmann over the next 4 years. A bigger number than the previously mentioned Kenny Payne buyout, but with much more favorable terms due to the payments being spread out over more years. Due to the offset language that buyout immediately dropped to a much more manageable $8.43M because DePaul is now paying him $1.5M/yr. Those $125K monthly payments to Holtmann from the Blue Demons are subtracted from the amount that the Buckeyes owed him. An added bonus here is that even if Holtmann gets a raise a year or 2 in that that will also lower the buyout number for Ohio State. Here are more details on Holtmann’s buyout and how much it changed after he signed with DePaul if you are interested.

I made a graphic to help you visualize what this could look like for Wes Miller and the University of Cincinnati if Miller took a low level job and also if he took a higher paying job like DePaul at $1.5M ⬇

As you can see if Miller gets a low level job paying $300K/yr that the buyout UC owes to him would go down from $137K/mo to $112K/mo or $97K/mo down to $72K/mo. The reality here is if Wes Miller is fired before 4/1 that some sort of negotiations took place and that the numbers are probably landing in between the $9.9M and $4.69M figures.

Regardless, the point stands, this is a manageable buyout for UC and if Coach Miller lands at a decent spot it gets even more manageable. Hell, Minnesota paid a $5M buyout to Ben Johnson + a $3M buyout to Colorado State to get their alum to come home to Minneapolis. It is worth mentioning that Josh Schertz’s buyout is rumored to be ~$4M and Jerrod Calhoun’s buyout is $4M. These are fairly large buyouts that the University of Cincinnati would have to pay.

Wes Miller is a young HC who will be focused on landing another HC gig as soon as possible. That has to be a factor here as the buyout Cincinnati hypothetically would be paying him is lower than fans expect. It’s very doable, and in most cases would be closer to $0 than the $9.9M he is currently owed.

Do the right thing. The honeymoon is over. The Cincinnati Bearcats fanbase has been drowning in mediocrity since the leap up to the Big 12 and it is time to re-inject some energy into a basketball program so many people care so much about.

The Big 12 checks are here. The football facility is built. 5/3 Arena is now a top tier venue. The next step has to be wins.

We have not bottomed out, but extended purgatory can be worse than hell, especially when the fanbase feels a disconnect and believes that the administration does not take basketball as seriously as they should.

An unprecedented run in the Big 12 Tournament this week could change things, but the timing is right to make this situation binary.

Get in the tournament if you want another shot, otherwise now is the time to move on.

Thanks for making it this far and hope you tune in for more year round Cincinnati Bearcats insights and opinions. Share and subscribe! E-mail me at [email protected] or DM me on Twitter @BearcatBunch.

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